There is a chain of impact to Colorado Springs: 

1. COS Utilities draws ~70% of supply from the Colorado River Basin via trans-mountain diversions (Fryingpan-Arkansas, Homestake, Blue River). Those rights all sit under the 1922 Colorado River Compact, which obligates the Upper Basin (CO, WY, UT, NM) to deliver 7.5 MAF/year to the Lower Basin at Lee Ferry.

2. Lake Powell is the storage that makes Upper Basin delivery possible. If Powell hits "de facto dead pool" at 3,500 feet (which Podmore says could happen early fall 2026) and the Overton-window consensus shifts to bypass/drain, the Upper Basin loses its cushion. That means more frequent direct-flow curtailment in dry years.                                                                                     

3. Junior water rights get curtailed first. A lot of Front Range trans-mountain water is post-1922 and would be vulnerable in a Compact Call scenario. COS Utilities has been planning for this — Southern Delivery System (SDS) was partly insurance — but SDS leans on Arkansas Basin storage that ultimately depends on the broader Compact framework holding together.                                                

Second-order COS impacts:                                                                                                                                                                                      

  - Housing: water tap moratoria → fewer permits → constrained inventory → price pressure

  - Cost of Living: utility rates rise as alternative supply gets expensive                                                                                                                                      

  - Migration: the "Front Range absorbs growth" pattern partly assumed water availability

  - Insurance: layers on top of already-tightening Front Range hail/wildfire underwriting